Mana ([info]cedarseed) wrote,
@ 2006-07-17 06:21:00
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Precise AND punctual. I was going to post thatnothing happened tonight, but at 6 sharp the bombing of the suburb strarted again.

Thank you [info]yessri for sharing this map updated to july 15:



Going through comments and reading the news then I'll update with whatever I find interesting.

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[info]lazha
2006-07-17 03:27 am UTC (link)
Ufff... hold on.

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[info]fallen_x_ashes
2006-07-17 03:36 am UTC (link)
What is up with Israel bombing Tripoli? I was suprised at that.

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[info]stagga_lee_ab
2006-07-17 04:11 am UTC (link)
Israel destroyed the radar stations in the army base in Tripoli that was used to attack an Israeli Navy ship yesterday. The city itself was not bombed from what I can see on the news.

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[info]cedarseed
2006-07-17 04:35 am UTC (link)
They're destroying all ports.

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[info]fallen_x_ashes
2006-07-17 05:00 am UTC (link)
Purely for their symbolic value of is their any tactical reason you can discern?

I mean, I'm kinda suprised if Hezbollah has much to do with those ports.

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[info]cedarseed
2006-07-17 05:05 am UTC (link)
The tactic is clear -- make it impossible to enter or leave Lebanon. The explicit reason is to prevent ahizbollah from receiving new weapons. Looks more like a disproportionate lashing out to me.

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[info]fallen_x_ashes
2006-07-17 05:13 am UTC (link)
Gotcha. I should have seen it since it makes sense.

Here's another question or two for you if you have the time and will to respond to. If the Lebanese army is sent to the south, what are the chances that they will be able to over Hezbollah alone? And, if they do not have the capability to overcome Hezbollah, what the chances that Siniora will ask for outside assistance of some form.

Also, I'd like to send you my condolences in regards to your Grandfather. It was mindless of me to completley forget about that. I empathize with you, and I'm glad that atleast it seems that he lived a long and very fulfilling life, and that you had him for what time you had. Myself, I lost my little brother four months ago in a horrific car wreck. So you truely have my deepest sympathies.

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[info]fallen_x_ashes
2006-07-17 05:14 am UTC (link)
*overcome Hezbollah alone?

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[info]cedarseed
2006-07-17 05:29 am UTC (link)
None. But the point of sending the army south is not to confront hizbollah, only to replace it. You see that's where politics come in. HA has staked all of its legitimacy on one card: that it served Lebanon's best interests and was there to resist Israel while the army couldn't. They cannot oppose themselves to the legitimate army sent by the legitimate government they claim to serve, without officially becoming rebels and terrorists. If they want to live on as a political entity, they will have to stand down and disarm; otherwise they'll have to stand alone against the entire world like any terrorist organisation.

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[info]fallen_x_ashes
2006-07-17 05:37 am UTC (link)
Interesting.

Thanks and try to stay safe!

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[info]hammerquill
2006-07-17 07:34 am UTC (link)
HA has staked all of its legitimacy on one card: that it served Lebanon's best interests and was there to resist Israel while the army couldn't.

Yes. This is precisely the tactic of all organized criminals, which is at root what terrorist organizations and paramilitaries are. You offer protection that seems to be lacking, or that you claim is lacking. You also help people out in ways that the society around you is too poor or too negligent, or too fragmented or controlled from outside, or too corrupt, to offer.

You gain and hold power by filling holes, perceived or real, that the legitimate authorities do not fill...

Every time this sort of organization succeeds in dragging things down to its level, in bringing about a descent into violence, chaos, anarchy, they make their position harder to assail. If a whole land descends into that chaos, those groups are the root of the ancient, tribal/feudalistic organization of the world. That is the rough beast always lurking, waiting to be born, and the past few years, after some real promise late last century, have brought that birth, or rebirth, ever closer. Lebanon, alas, has known all too much of its depredations. It too participated, eventually, in that promise of better things. And now the beast is arising again, and being granted the chaos it needs to thrive by this new war.

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[info]cedarseed
2006-07-18 06:31 am UTC (link)
Let's hope the beast receives a severe blow this time.

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[info]hakeber
2006-07-17 12:30 pm UTC (link)
A friend of mine has now looked at that map had this to say: Looking at the map, this is what's called "preparing the battlefield". They're sealing off routes for resupply, reinforcements, or escape.

Expect a ground invasion in a couple of days or so. Frankly, I kinda expected it this morning but apparently they want more time to prepare. They just called up another reserve division. They wouldn't do that unless they intended to use it.

Unfortunately, I think he may be right. Hopefully, they won't go as far as Beirut.

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[info]cedarseed
2006-07-17 05:47 am UTC (link)
Thanks for your condolences, by the way, and condolences back. I imagine it's much more awful to lose a younger brother than someone who's lived a long fulfilled life :( I'm so sorry.

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[info]fallen_x_ashes
2006-07-17 07:29 am UTC (link)
I think the senselessness of War is probably the only thing that can top the senselessness of a meaningless death as his.

If this gets much, much, worse though, maybe he'll wind up the lucky one.

But I hope it doesn't get that bad. And possibly won't.

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[info]gipa
2006-07-17 07:43 am UTC (link)
It's quite simple, as a matter of fact.
Besides blocading Lebanon, so HA won't get any new weapons, here's another reason:
The Israeli ship was hit 16 km (about 10 miles) froom the coastline. Unless you have a radar, you don't know it's even there. So, making simple math, you can see, that someone in the Lebanon army was passing info to HA.
By the way, another proof to that is, that tere were two rockets. The first one hit an egyptian ship, which was nearby. You can't distinguish on the radar screen, which is which. So they just fired.

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[info]cielmer
2006-07-17 03:43 am UTC (link)
I've a question....

Will their be a place where they post the names of casualities?? I have family out there. Specfically my estranged father who I've not seen in 11 years. He's in Beirut. I want to know exactly how bad it got hit...

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[info]cedarseed
2006-07-17 04:36 am UTC (link)
I don't know. But the chances of him getting hurt are slim, unless he lives in the southern suburb and neglected to leave when everyone else did.

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[info]auraian
2006-07-17 03:47 am UTC (link)
Hello from Canada. I hope you and yours are staying safe this morning. I've read the last little bit of your blog... sorry to hear about the recent passing of your grandfather. I also checked out your design/illustration work as those are interests of mine as well. You're quite talented!

We are pretty close in age too. I venture to think that had it not been for my parents leaving Lebanon just as the civil war started that I might be in the same situation as you are right now. My mom has been spending the last few summers in Bchamoun and up until a few days ago was still there but managed (somehow) to get to her sister's in Amman. My aunts, uncles, and countless cousins are still in Beirut and Lebanon and my thoughts are with them constantly. I was there the last two summers and it's more than heartbreaking and quite unbelievable to see the devastation happening now.

Holding out hope against hope that this insanity ends soon. :(

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[info]hakeber
2006-07-17 05:12 am UTC (link)
An implaccable force against an immovable object. I wish I could see that there could be a good ending for this.

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[info]alameya
2006-07-17 09:41 am UTC (link)
The arrow on your map pointing from Lebanon to "Netanya and Tel Aviv" looks like you are pointing a destination for the missiles :(

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[info]dimrub
2006-07-17 11:52 am UTC (link)
This one is not accurate anymore: Israeli cities of Migdal Haemek, Afula, Yokneam, located SE from Haifa were all hit by rockets. Here's the origin of the map, perhaps it will be updated later on:

http://www.debka.com/pictures/Lebanon.jpg

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